A complex weather pattern is forecast to develop and impact east-central Florida from late this week through the weekend, and possibly into early next week. While it's too early to determine the specific details, below is an outlook of some of the potential impacts.
A strong high pressure system will build north through late week, and persist into the weekend. Onshore winds will increase and become gusty to the south of the high pressure system and last through the weekend. Meanwhile, a disturbance will evolve in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere over/near Florida, and will increase moisture levels. The increased moisture, combined with gusty onshore winds from the Atlantic will lead to high rain chances and periods of heavy rain (especially near the east coast). Over the coastal waters, numerous hazards will develop, including strong winds, high seas, dangerous breaking surf, rip currents, and beach erosion.
Several forecast models are also indicating eventual development of a weak surface low pressure system; likely in the form of a "hybrid/sub-tropical" system (combined tropical and non-tropical characteristics). If this system were to form, its location and track would determine further impacts for late in the weekend, possibly into early next week.
Atlantic Waters/Beach Impacts:
A strong high pressure system will build north through late week, and persist into the weekend. Onshore winds will increase and become gusty to the south of the high pressure system and last through the weekend. Meanwhile, a disturbance will evolve in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere over/near Florida, and will increase moisture levels. The increased moisture, combined with gusty onshore winds from the Atlantic will lead to high rain chances and periods of heavy rain (especially near the east coast). Over the coastal waters, numerous hazards will develop, including strong winds, high seas, dangerous breaking surf, rip currents, and beach erosion.
Several forecast models are also indicating eventual development of a weak surface low pressure system; likely in the form of a "hybrid/sub-tropical" system (combined tropical and non-tropical characteristics). If this system were to form, its location and track would determine further impacts for late in the weekend, possibly into early next week.
Atlantic Waters/Beach Impacts:
- Increasing winds over the coastal waters will reach 15-20 knots with seas of 5 of 8 feet within 20 miles of the coast (higher further offshore). A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect beginning before sunrise Thursday.
- Gale conditions, with frequent gusts to 35 knots will be possible as early as Saturday morning and continuing through the weekend, and possibly into early next week. These conditions will be most likely offshore, beyond 20 miles of the coast.
- Rough and dangerous surf expected along the beaches Saturday/Sunday, with breaking surf of 6 feet possible.
- Minor beach erosion and frequent/strong rip currents likely Friday-Sunday.
East-central Florida Land Impacts:
- Gusty onshore winds will reach 25 mph along the coast tonight, and 30 mph Thursday through the weekend. Wind gusts will generally be in the 20-25 mph range farther inland Thursday through the weekend.
- The strong onshore flow will enhance the coverage and intensity of showers/rain along the coast with local flooding possible. Along the coast, rainfall totals of 4-6 inches will be possible, mainly Friday through Sunday. Local rainfall totals may reach 8-10 inches in some areas. It is too early to pin down the most favored locations for the highest rainfall amounts. Farther inland, average rainfall totals are expected to be in the 2-3 inch range, with localized totals reaching 4-6 inches in some locations. The highest totals are likely close to the coast, and the lowest totals are likely far inland (i.e. Lake County).
Long Range Potential Impacts:
- At this time, the best estimate for possible hydrid/sub-tropical development would be along a weak front near the Florida Straits early Saturday, with movement toward the north or northwest Sunday into early next week.
- If this scenario were to develop, the period of gusty winds and high rain chances would persist into early next week.
- An isolated tornado threat could develop across portions of east-central Florida, most likely Sunday into Sunday night.
