Summary:
· Hurricane Rina continued to strengthen overnight and became a Category 2 hurricane at 5am Tuesday.
· As of 8am ET Tuesday, Hurricane Rina was located 305 miles east-southeast of the Mexico/Belize border, which is also approximately 512 miles south-southwest of Key West, Florida.
· The Lower and Middle Florida Keys, Florida Bay, and far southern mainland Monroe County currently lies within the 5 day error cone.
· All of South Florida and portions of West Central Florida continue to have a slight chance of receiving tropical storm force winds within the next 5 days. Probabilities of this occurring are very small, with about a 10-20% chance of TS winds along the Florida Keys and coastal portions of Collier and Monroe counties. There are no watches or warnings in place for Florida.
· Maximum sustained winds have increased to 100 mph, making Rina a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days and Rina could become a major hurricane as early as tonight.
· Despite being a well-organized system, computer models remain in disagreement in regards to the strength and track of the system due to uncertainties in the steering current pattern for later this week and this weekend.
· Rina is currently drifting toward the west-northwest around 3 mph. A gradual turn to the northwest along with a slight increase in forward speed should occur today.
· A northward turn could occur on Thursday in response to an approaching frontal system moving into the Southeastern U.S. through the upcoming weekend.
· The strength and amplitude of the front will play a role in the track of Hurricane Rina and most of the computer models along with the official forecast take the Rina eastward in 4-5 days, but since the storm will be weakening due to the increased wind shear, Rina may be only temporarily pushed eastward and not picked up by the front.
· Many of the more reliable computer models suggest this scenario and keep Rina in the Caribbean Sea through the weekend before being steered west into Central America next week by the subsequent ridge building in behind the front.
· There is still a considerable amount of uncertainty in the forecast and it is too early to tell if this system will directly impact Florida. Everyone is encouraged to continue to monitor this storm over the next several days.
· Elsewhere, a broad area of low pressure, designated as invest area 97L, is producing a large area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
· Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for development and the National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 30% chance that 97L will develop within the next 48 hours as it moves west-northwestward around 15-20 mph.
