Community Update

·         A large area of low pressure, designated as 95L, about 100 miles north of the Yucatan Peninsula has not changed much in organization over the past few hours. However, this system continues to produce winds near tropical storm force.

·         Environmental conditions are marginally favorable for development and the National Hurricane Center has given 95L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical or sub-tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours as it moves northward around 5-10 mph.

·         Computer models have come into much better agreement on the track of this system and most expect it to travel very slowly during the next 24 hours. After that time, this system is expected to turn toward the northeast by Tuesday as it gets picked up by a trough of low pressure. On this track, the system would approach the Peninsula Gulf Coast of Florida by Wednesday.

·         Some computer models show 95L developing into a tropical storm within the next 12-24 hours. After that time, wind shear will significantly increase as the system is picked up by the trough of low pressure and this should inhibit further strengthening. If this system receives a name, the next name on the list is Rina.

·         A Hurricane Hunter Reconnaissance Aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon.

·         Regardless of development, heavy rainfall, gusty winds and rough ocean conditions will be possible throughout the Peninsula through Wednesday night. At the current time, around 2-4 inches of rain is expected to fall over Central Florida through late Wednesday with higher amounts reaching up to 5-6 inches across South Florida and the Florida Keys. This will cause localized flooding in rivers, low-lying areas and on roadways, especially in areas that received a significant amount of rainfall earlier this month. A Flood Watch is in effect for South Florida through this evening and this will likely be extended through the next day or so. Also, several Flood Warnings are still in place for rivers in Central Florida.

·         Additionally, there is a slight risk for severe weather tonight through tomorrow night throughout Central and South Florida. Environmental conditions will be favorable for severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes.

·         Offshore waves may reach up to 7-9 feet along the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts by mid week and this may result in breaking waves around 5-7 feet. These rough ocean conditions may result in minor coastal flooding and an elevated risk of rip currents.