A low pressure system is developing along the end of an old stationary frontal zone in the Gulf of Mexico north of western Cuba. Although there is a lot of tropical moisture associated with this storm system, contrary to some of the televised hype, this is not a tropical storm but it does have an area of abundant rainfall that is located mostly to the northeast of the storm center. It also has some areas of heavy thunderstorm activity and strong wind gusts near these thunderstorms so weather conditions will seem similar to a tropical storm - especially along the west coast of the peninsula. The low center should track to the north northeast to northeast this morning and cross the peninsula from the vicinity of Cedar Key to Jacksonville Tuesday evening.
Rainfall amounts from 3 to 5 inches are likely in southwest Florida with 1 to 3 inches possible in northeast Florida. With many areas of central and south Florida already soaked from earlier heavy rains, some flooding of low-lying areas, ditches, retention ponds, etc., can be expected. For east central Florida scattered showers and possible thunderstorms on Tuesday. The period of heaviest weather will be from around 9PM Tuesday evening through about 6AM early Wednesday morning. Winds will become southerly with gusts to 30-35mph Tuesday evening - isolated gusts late Tuesday evening to 40mph possible along the east coast of central Florida. There is a slight risk for isolated tornadoes Tuesday evening that could extend into the early hours of Wednesday morning. Tuesday evening is likely to be a rough night for driving. Cooler weather after the storm passes, with low temperatures on Thursday and Friday morning in the mid to upper 50s.
