Given the long stretch of non-severe weather we've been experiencing across central Florida, and that many outdoor activities are planned for this weekend, we wanted to provide an an update to the weekend outlook and potential for a severe weather event.
An upper-level weather system is forecast to develop over the Lower Plains late this week then intensify as it moves across the Southeast U.S. this weekend. A surface low pressure system will develop and move east near the Gulf Coast and across the Florida peninsula over the weekend, while a trailing cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida peninsula Sunday. The computer model trends have trended toward a more southern movement of this system. If this trend continues, the threat of a squall line will not be as high. However, the potential for severe storms will still exist from Saturday through Sunday.
At this time, the weekend is shaping up as follows:
Saturday - expect showers and storms to become widespread over the area, with heavy rain possible. A few strong to severe storms may occur, although atmospheric instability may limit the extent of storm strengthening.
Saturday Night - Continuation of a high coverage of showers and storms, with a few strong to severe storms possible. The present more southward track looks less favorable for an overnight squall line, but this will be monitored through subsequent model runs since any trending back to the north will raise the likelihood of a squall line.
Sunday - Current southward track would increase likelihood of some strong to severe storms daytime Sunday, as cool and dry air aloft could bring large hail and damaging wind gusts to the area.
Prior to this weekend, scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorm development is expected with isolated strong storms possible.
Another update will be provided by midday Friday with additional details on the timing and impacts.
If needed, severe weather webinars will be conducted on Friday and Saturday.
Peggy Glitto
NWS Melbourne
