At this time, the weekend is shaping up as follows:
This afternoon/evening - scattered thunderstorms with isolated strong/severe wind gusts and large hail will be possible. These storms will occur due to eastward moving storms over the interior peninsula interacting with the sea breeze boundary as they approach the eastern side of the peninsula.
Saturday - chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, becoming widespread by midday with heavy rain possible. Isolated strong to severe storms may occur, although atmospheric instability may limit the coverage of storms.
Saturday Night - Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue, with a strong to severe storms possible. The more northward track of the surface low is more favorable for an overnight squall line to push through east central Florida. This trend will be monitored closely tonight/Saturday.
Sunday - The potential for strong thunderstorms will continue during the morning as the storm system lifts into the Atlantic and pulls a cold front through the Florida peninsula. Cool and dry air aloft could bring large hail and damaging wind gusts to the area, with the weather ending across all of east-central Florida before sunset. Rainfall totals are expected to average 1-2 inches across east-central Florida, with isolated totals near 3 inches.
This afternoon/evening - scattered thunderstorms with isolated strong/severe wind gusts and large hail will be possible. These storms will occur due to eastward moving storms over the interior peninsula interacting with the sea breeze boundary as they approach the eastern side of the peninsula.
Saturday - chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, becoming widespread by midday with heavy rain possible. Isolated strong to severe storms may occur, although atmospheric instability may limit the coverage of storms.
Saturday Night - Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue, with a strong to severe storms possible. The more northward track of the surface low is more favorable for an overnight squall line to push through east central Florida. This trend will be monitored closely tonight/Saturday.
Sunday - The potential for strong thunderstorms will continue during the morning as the storm system lifts into the Atlantic and pulls a cold front through the Florida peninsula. Cool and dry air aloft could bring large hail and damaging wind gusts to the area, with the weather ending across all of east-central Florida before sunset. Rainfall totals are expected to average 1-2 inches across east-central Florida, with isolated totals near 3 inches.
Below is a more detailed explanation from the NWS in Melbourne:
A mid and upper-level weather system over the southern plains/lower Mississippi Valley will move into the northeast Gulf of Mexico by daybreak Saturday. This weather feature will cause a surface low pressure center to develop over the northeast Gulf of Mexico after daybreak Saturday, then intensify as it lifts northeast across the Florida Big Bend and the east Florida panhandle through the day.
The movement of the surface low has trended farther north than previous model data suggested and places the central peninsula under a higher risk for strong or severe weather than indicated in the previous briefing on Thursday. The weather system will move to the western Atlantic Sunday and will pull a cold front through the state Sunday night, bringing an end to the rainfall. Rainfall chances will be near 100% across east-central Florida with the potential for heavy rain at times, mainly from mid day Saturday through early Sunday. Rainfall totals are expected to average 1-2 inches across east-central Florida, with isolated totals near 3 inches. Given the dry ground conditions in most areas, this rainfall is not expected to produce significant impacts - with temporary ponding of water in poor drainage areas most likely.
A large area of clouds and rainfall will likely lower temperatures enough to keep instability on the low side Saturday, helping to limit a widespread coverage of severe storms. However, wind shear will increase as the storm system deepens over the Gulf of Mexico and approaches the state, and this will likely allow a few embedded thunderstorms to become strong to severe, with locally damaging winds, large hail, and isolated/brief tornadoes possible. The severe threat will increase during the late morning and early afternoon, and will remain elevated through the afternoon/evening.
Overnight Saturday into early Sunday, a squall line may develop over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and move across the peninsula. The threat for damaging winds and isolated/brief tornadoes will exist if this line of storms develops and moves across the region.
At this time, all of east central Florida has an equal threat for severe weather. By Saturday morning, we may be able to better define which portion of the region has a greater/lower risk for severe weather, as well as provide greater detail on the most likely time period of impacts.
A mid and upper-level weather system over the southern plains/lower Mississippi Valley will move into the northeast Gulf of Mexico by daybreak Saturday. This weather feature will cause a surface low pressure center to develop over the northeast Gulf of Mexico after daybreak Saturday, then intensify as it lifts northeast across the Florida Big Bend and the east Florida panhandle through the day.
The movement of the surface low has trended farther north than previous model data suggested and places the central peninsula under a higher risk for strong or severe weather than indicated in the previous briefing on Thursday. The weather system will move to the western Atlantic Sunday and will pull a cold front through the state Sunday night, bringing an end to the rainfall. Rainfall chances will be near 100% across east-central Florida with the potential for heavy rain at times, mainly from mid day Saturday through early Sunday. Rainfall totals are expected to average 1-2 inches across east-central Florida, with isolated totals near 3 inches. Given the dry ground conditions in most areas, this rainfall is not expected to produce significant impacts - with temporary ponding of water in poor drainage areas most likely.
A large area of clouds and rainfall will likely lower temperatures enough to keep instability on the low side Saturday, helping to limit a widespread coverage of severe storms. However, wind shear will increase as the storm system deepens over the Gulf of Mexico and approaches the state, and this will likely allow a few embedded thunderstorms to become strong to severe, with locally damaging winds, large hail, and isolated/brief tornadoes possible. The severe threat will increase during the late morning and early afternoon, and will remain elevated through the afternoon/evening.
Overnight Saturday into early Sunday, a squall line may develop over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and move across the peninsula. The threat for damaging winds and isolated/brief tornadoes will exist if this line of storms develops and moves across the region.
At this time, all of east central Florida has an equal threat for severe weather. By Saturday morning, we may be able to better define which portion of the region has a greater/lower risk for severe weather, as well as provide greater detail on the most likely time period of impacts.
Thank you
