An area of low pressure designated as Invest 94L has become better organized since Wednesday evening and at 8PM Thursday evening the center was located offshore southeast of Islandia, Florida, on Elliott Key, with wind gusts close to tropical storm force to the northeast of the center. Thursday afternoon some locations in extreme South Florida experienced squalls gusting to about 55mph. The system is drifting to the east and a eventual movement to the northeast is expected on Friday. As high pressure builds to the north of the system, the forward speed is expected to decrease.
The convection is displaced well to the north and east of the center and, like Tropical Storm Alberto earlier this month, the system is influenced by the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. The shallow system remains beneath the influence of the stronger southwesterly flow aloft. Some additional development is possible - probably subtropical in nature. There is a chance that the building high pressure to the north will trap the system and nudge it back to the west. Showers and thunderstorms are possible over south Florida this evening with the stronger squalls remaining offshore.
If the high pressure increases to the north and indeed blocks the low and retrogrades it back toward the southeast coast, the latter part of the upcoming Memorial Day holiday weekend could get very wet and windy. Folks from Florida and the northern Bahamas north to South Carolina should continue to monitor this developing system through the holiday weekend. If the system should attain Subtropical or Tropical Storm status (the National Hurricane Center currently gives the system a 60% chance for additional development into a tropical cyclone), the next name on the list this year is Beryl. I wouldn't change any holiday weekend plans just yet but continue to check on the weather forecasts for the next few days.
