NOAA indicates low pressure system in Gulf has high potential for organization into TS Debby in the next 24-48 hours.
9:00 am EST, Friday, June 22, 2012:
Invest 96 is a broad area low pressure in the south-central Gulf of Mexico that is currently moving slowly to the north. It has been under moderate-high wind shear, which has limited its organization over the past few days. That wind shear is expected to decrease over the next 24-48 hours making formation of a tropical cyclone possible, and even likely, over the next 24-48 hours. NOAA is taking this decrease in wind shear into account and putting the chance of this storm becoming a Tropical Depression/Storm within the next 48 hours at 70% - High. It looks like there is a good chance that we will have our 4th Named Storm over the weekend of this already very active Hurricane Season.
Invest 96 is currently generally disorganized and does not have a strong core of thunderstorms. The Gulf of Mexico water vapor loop showed dry air entering from the north. We have, however seen some congruity in the models as of the last update from NOAA at 8:00 am this morning. Most models have this storm continuing to track north into the central Gulf of Mexico over the next 24-48 hours and then turning to the east, with the potential of interaction with Florida over the weekend.
Early models suggest local heavy rain over the weekend in Satellite Beach
The more time the storm spends in the warmer waters of the Gulf of Mexico, the greater potential for organization and strengthening. NOAA is indicating that all residents along the entire Gulf Coast should be aware of the storm and continue to track its movement over the next couple of days.
This information will be updated as information comes in.
