At 5PM EDT Thursday, Tropical Depression #5 has strengthened into Tropical Storm Ernesto. Ernesto was located about 295 miles east of the Windward Islands, or about 1,750 miles southeast of Miami, Florida, and moving west at 22mph.
Despite Ernesto looking disorganized on satellite imagery, preliminary hurricane reconnaissance found maximum sustained surface winds of about 50 mph.
There are no watches or warnings in effect for any U.S. landmass and no part of Florida is currently within the 5 day error cone.
An area of moderately strong wind shear located north of Ernesto and some drier air on the west side of the storm will limit the rate of strengthening over the next 24-48 hours, when it is forecast to reach the Western Caribbean.
The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center has the depression becoming a category 1 hurricane on Monday Afternoon. About a third of the models, however, keep it weaker below tropical storm strength. As such, there is a 20% chance that Ernesto could dissipate while there is a 40% chance that Ernesto could become a hurricane by Monday
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A quick west to west-northwest track is expected to occur through the next 3-4 days, and the official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center, along with an overwhelming majority of the available computer models, take T.D. 5 into the eastern Caribbean Sea by Saturday. Beyond this point, the models begin to spread out with a range of possibilities between Cuba and Central America.
The official forecast has shifted slightly south, but still takes T.D. 5 into the central Caribbean this weekend and passing just south of Jamaica early next week.
It isimportant to note that confidence in the forecast of this system is low and that computer model guidance (especially intensity forecasts) can be unreliable until a better organized system develops.
Meanwhile, a tropical wave approaching Cuba will keep rain chances elevated for southern Florida through this weekend while a disturbance brings above normal rain chances across North Florida for the next few days.
Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating Ernesto
