Ernesto

·         Tropical Storm Ernesto crossed the Windward Islands into the eastern Caribbean Sea early this morning.

·         At 8am EDT Friday, TS Ernesto was located just west of St. Luciaand St. Vincent Islands, or about 1,480 miles southeast of Miami,Florida, and moving quickly west at 24 mph.

·         Ernesto once again lost some organization and strength overnight, and maximum sustained winds are now near 45mph.

·         There are no watches or warnings in effect for any U.S. landmass and no part of Florida is currently within the 5 day error cone.

·         However, there is now a 5-10% chance of tropical storm force winds affecting portions of Collier and Monroe counties next week. This is largely due to uncertainties in the track and that the wind swath of Ernesto should grow once it reaches the westernCaribbean.

·         Track models are in good agreement on a quick track toward the west, or a little north of due west, through the eastern and central Caribbean Sea with slow, gradual strengthening through the next 72 hours. 

·         However, beyond this point, computer models are still spread out, with a range of possibilities between the Florida Panhandle andMexico. The storm should also slow its forward progress as it turns towards the Yucatan Channel, making the forecast path more challenging due to timing considerations with steering patterns.

·         The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Ernesto becoming a hurricane early Monday while passing south ofJamaica. Some models wait until Tuesday to make Ernesto a hurricane and suggest it  could continue strengthening next week as it enters the southern Gulf of Mexico.

·         It is important to note that confidence in the forecast beyond 72 hours is low and that computer model guidance (especially intensity forecasts) can be unreliable.

·         Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Ernesto again this afternoon.

·         Meanwhile, a tropical wave extending from the Bahamas to central Cuba will keep rain chances elevated for southern Floridathrough this weekend. This system is unlikely to develop and theNational Hurricane Center is forecasting only a 10% chance of development within 48 hours.

·         Further east, a tropical wave and associated area of low pressure in the far eastern Atlantic near the Cape Verde Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms.

·         Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are favorable for gradual development, and the National Hurricane Center is now forecasting a30% chance that this system, classified as invest area 90L, will become a tropical cyclone this weekend as it moves west-northwest at 10-15mph.  The next name on the 2012 storm list is Floren