At 5AM EDT Friday, TS Ernesto was located 305 miles south-southwest of San Juan, Puerto Rick, or about 1,120 miles southeast of Miami, Florida, and moving quickly west at 18 mph.
· Ernesto has become better organized, and maximum sustained winds are now near 60mph.
· There are no watches or warnings in effect for any U.S. landmass and no part of Florida is currently within the 5 day error cone.
· Due to a westward shift in the forecast track, the chance of receiving tropical storm winds in Florida is lower than yesterday. There is, however, a 5-10% chance that extreme coastal portions of Southwest Florida could see tropical storm force winds next week.
· Computer models remain in good agreement on a quick track toward the west, or a little north of due west, through the central Caribbean Sea with slow, gradual strengthening through the next 48 hours, but computer models are also coming into better agreement in the long-range forecast track of Ernesto.
· However, beyond this point, computer models are still spread out, with a range of possibilities between Louisiana and Central America. The storm should also slow its forward progress as it turns towards the Yucatan Channel, making the forecast path more challenging due to timing considerations with steering patterns.
· There is still a range of possibilities between Louisiana and Central America, but many of the more reliable models, along with the forecast track from the National Hurricane Center, take Ernesto northwest into the Yucatan Peninsula in the 4-5 day time frame and then into the western Gulf of Mexico.
· It is important to note that confidence in the forecast beyond 72 hours is low and that computer model guidance (especially intensity forecasts) can be unreliable.
· Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft will investigate Ernesto again today.
· Further east, Tropical Depression 6 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Florence at 8am. Florence was located about 330 miles west of the southern-most Cape Verde Islands, or about 3330 miles from Miami, FL, and moving to the west-northwest at 16 mph.
· Florence appears to be organized and maximum sustained winds are at 40mph.
· There are no watches or warnings in effect for any U.S. landmass and no part of Florida is currently within the 5 day error cone.
· Track models are in good agreement on a quick track toward the northwest, through the eastern Atlantic with slow, if any, strengthening through the next 48hours.
· This storm may weaken as it encounters a large area of dry air and moves over slightly cooler waters.
· Meanwhile, a tropical wave extending from the Bahamas to central Cuba will keep rain chances elevated for much of Florida through this weekend as it moves towards the northwest at 5-10mph. Although the National Hurricane Center is monitoring this disturbance for possible development, the chance for development appears unlikely. The National Hurricane Center forecasts a low chance (10%) for this system to become a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
· The forecast movement of this system suggests that active weather will begin to spread onshore from the Atlantic later this morning, beginning along the Atlantic Coast. Numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms can be expected across all of east-central Florida during the day Saturday and into Saturday night. A higher than normal coverage of rain may continue into Sunday as well, as the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico, further away from east-central Florida.
· Periods of heavy rain will be possible, especially Saturday. Widespread rainfall totals through Sunday may reach a quarter of an inch to an inch, but higher amounts are possible in stronger storms.
· A severe weather is not expected at this time. While no significant sustained winds are forecast, wind gusts in some of the heavier showers and storms may reach 35 to 45 mph.
