Hurricane Sandy is located just south of Jamaica moving to the north and should make landfall near Kingston around 4PM ET this afternoon. Sustained winds have increased to 80mph and the central pressure is 973MB (28.73"). Sandy is expected to cross eastern Cuba tonight and emerge from the north shore of eastern Cuba around sunrise on Thursday morning. Sandy should weaken to a strong tropical storm after crossing Cuba, but reintensification is possible and the windfield of the storm should expand considerably as Sandy moves into the central Bahamas on Thursday and the northern Bahamas on Friday morning. Sandy has the potential to become a large storm. With strong high pressure to the north of Florida, Sandy could get nudged a little to the north northwest on Thursday before taking a more north northeasterly track Friday afternoon.
The tight pressure gradient combined with the slight jog to the west of due north and the expanding windfield have prompted the National Hurricane Center to issue a Tropical Storm Watch for the east coast of Florida south of the Brevard/Volusia county line. While Sandy is likely to remain offshore by at least 150 miles, she is also going to be a very slow moving storm. The Tropical Storm Watch could be changed to a Tropical Storm Warning later today or tonight.
For east central Florida, scattered showers will increase in frequency on Thursday and Friday. Northeast winds will also increase with very windy conditions likely late Thursday through Saturday morning. Peak winds are expected from late morning on Friday through early morning on Saturday - winds out of the northeast to north northeast at 30 to 40mph with isolated gusts of 45-50mph in tropical squalls along the Barrier Islands on Friday and Friday night - the higher gusts will be more likely for tall structures on the islands and for the peak elevations on the causeways. Tropical Storm conditions could extend inland to areas near or just west of I-95.
Uncommonly high seas are expected with offshore wave heights as high as 25-30 feet, nearshore wave heights up to 12 feet, some coastal flooding - particularly at times of high tide - rough and choppy inland waters, strong rip tides and significant beach erosion. Sea conditions are likely to remain rough through Monday. Safest course of action is to secure the boat and avoid the beach. While east central Florida will be on the 'west' or drier side of the storm, rainfall totals of a couple of inches are still possible from Thursday through Saturday. Also secure any loose objects that could be blown around by the blustery wind - drive carefully - and stay safe.
