Tropical Storm Sandy

As Tropical Storm/Hurricane Sandy lifts northward through the Caribbean and Bahamas late this week and continues north/northeast into the Western Atlantic over the weekend, the large circulation around the system will bring impacts to east-central Florida, primarily to the coastline and adjacent marine area.

Based on the current NHC forecast and reliable forecast models, the center of the system is expected to remain 250-300 miles offshore east-central Florida. Any movement farther west from this expected track would increase the impacts to the local area. 

A large and expansive wind field will be associated with Sandy, but the distance from Florida should limit the impacts to coastal and marine interests.

Sandy is expected to transition from a tropical system to a sub-tropical or non-tropical system Saturday night/Sunday morning as it moves northeast of Florida and away from the state. This transition will likely cause impacts to continue even after the storm reaches it closest approach to east-central Florida and begins to move away.

Sustained Tropical Storm force winds not expected onshore but will be possible in gusts Friday afternoon along the coast (40 mph). While wind damage is not expected, a WIND ADVISORY will likely become required later this week.  

Sustained Tropical Storm force winds will be possible over the offshore Atlantic waters (Thursday night through Friday night), mainly beyond 20 miles offshore. A Tropical Storm Watch/Warning may eventually be required for a portion of the Atlantic adjacent to east-central Florida, but is not anticipated for land areas. 

Expect a prolonged period of strong N/NE winds near the coast:  NE 20-25mph Thursday afternoon; N 25-30mph Fri afternoon; and N 20-25 mph Sat afternoon. Wind gusts will reach near 35 mph Thursday, 40 mph Friday and 35 mph Saturday. 

The threat for beach erosion will be HIGH, due to strong winds occurring over several days of high tide cycles. With most dunes in good condition initially, beach erosion should become more significant Friday/Saturday, when winds become northerly.  

Very hazardous boating conditions will continue through the weekend. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY will likely be required for east-central Florida beaches by Thursday or Friday.

Thursday afternoon: seas building to 6-9 feet near-shore and 9-11 feet beyond 20 miles offshore. Breaking surf increasing to  4-6 feet.
Friday afternoon: seas building to 10-14 feet near-shore and 15-18 feet beyond 20 miles offshore, continuing through Saturday afternoon. Breaking surf reaching 6-8 feet.
Sunday afternoon: seas subsiding to 6-10 feet near-shore and 12-14 feet beyond 20 miles offshore. Breaking surf 4-6 feet.

Across the interior counties of east central Florida, breezy to occasionally windy conditions are expected Thursday, Friday, and Saturday afternoon, with winds of 15-25 mph.

Another email update will be provided by noon Wednesday.