530 PM Thursday October 25, 2012
Scott Spratt
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
NWS Melbourne, Florida
There have been no significant changes with the expected impacts to east-central Florida from Hurricane Sandy since the 1130 am briefing this morning: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/mlb/presentations/mlb-em-brief.pdf
Satellite imagery suggests that the upper level weather system west of Hurricane Sandy has begun to interact with the circulation and the beginning of a transition to a partial non-tropical season may begin tonight/Friday. As this process occurs, the strong winds surrounding the center are forecast to expand substantially, bringing sustained winds near tropical storm force (40 mph) to the beaches and barrier islands of east central Florida Friday morning through Saturday morning. Wind gusts, especially in squalls are expected to reach 45-50 mph, mainly along the beaches and barrier islands. Inland from around I-95 west, winds will be about 10 mph less. Otherwise, breezy to occasionally windy conditions will occur near the coast tonight, but winds will become light and less gusty inland – except in the vicinity of a few passing showers.
A majority of the reliable forecast models continue to depict a slowing of the forward speed of the hurricane and a temporary turn to the northwest and north Friday afternoon/evening, followed by a northeast track away from Florida late Friday night and Saturday. There continues to be some uncertainty of how much of a northwest jog will occur and for how long the system will slow down. A jog closer to the state will likely increase the winds along the coast, but likely would still remain in the lower tropical storm range.
More concentrated bands of rain will affect primarily the Treasure Coast Counties tonight, with a few passing showers/squalls elsewhere. The concentrated bands of rain are expected to lift toward into Brevard County Friday morning and Volusia County by Friday afternoon. Farther inland, rainfall will be isolated to scattered, with much less coverage tonight/Friday. Rainfall totals along the coast may reach 1-3 inches on average, with isolated higher totals of 3-6" in a few spots. Rainfall inland should average less than 1 inch (much less in many areas inland).
Dangerous pounding surf, strong and frequent rip currents, and moderate to locally significant beach erosion are expected along the beaches tonight through Saturday, and possibly lasting even longer. High tides will occur shortly after sunrise and just prior to sunset through Saturday, with each successive high tide compounding the effects of beach erosion. Minor coastal flooding may occur near the time of high tide, especially in the historically vulnerable areas within Martin County.
